Tagi - economic
Global markets are caught in a tug-of-war between optimism over better-than-expected economic data, and concern over the surge in coronavirus infections.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx news official website.
While currencies saw muted moves in early trading on Monday, the Australian dollar underperformed, dropping as much as 0.2%. The nation has seen a rise in infections recently. The big worry, however, is the U.S., where a surge in cases pushed global figures above 11.3 million.
Even though U.S. labor data showed a marked improvement in June, the dollar fell last week, ending the currencys longest-winning streak since January. The Citi Economic Surprise Index for the nation soared to a record, while a similar gauge for major economies is at the highest level since 2017.
It‘s a push and pull between positive and negative numbers that has lasted for weeks, said Stephen Innes, chief global markets strategist at AxiCorp, adding that markets may be headed for a "Let's Make a Deal" moment, referencing a popular game show in the U.S. that started in the 1960s.
"Behind door number one sits the all-in trade from a vaccine discovery," said Innes. "Behind door number two lies the relatively optimistic economic outcome, but its door number three, where the prophet of doom sits reminding us the virus risk will lead to a more significant growth hit in the third quarter."
Economic releases from developed nations through Friday may help investors decide. Germanys industrial production probably bounced back in May, as did Italian retail sales, based on estimates compiled by Bloomberg. PMI data from the U.S. may show a minor improvement.
As 2020 draws to a close, prospects for economic recovery next year are emerging. The IMF projects that the global economy will shrink by 4.4% in 2020, followed by a 5.2% rebound in 2021, supporting a V-shaped recovery.To get more news about WikiFX, you can visit wikifx official website.
For the moment, whether the global economy will grow beyond 5% in 2021 depends on the following uncertainties:
So far, Covid-19 infections are increasing to varying degrees in Asia, America, and Europe, with the epicenter shifting from developed countries to emerging markets. Surging cases have raised fears of another downturn in the world economy and put pressure on central banks and governments. Economists from Wall Street believed another recession will rage the US, Eurozone, and Japan, both this quarter and next. Global economic growth in 2021 could be far below expectations if mass vaccinations won't be available soon.
As the US election winds down, challenges remain ahead of China-US trade. While Trump likes to use tariffs as a weapon in trade wars, Biden believes that tariff wars are not a good method and may use trade dispute resolution mechanisms, collective bargaining, and domestic tax policies to support American companies, said Imogen Page-Jarrett, a research analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit. With this in mind, the bilateral relations are bound to deteriorate over time as the trade war will continue in various forms.
Any adverse changes in the above two concerns may turn drag 2021s global economic recovery below expectations, turning the V-shaped trajectory to a U-shaped or Nike swoosh pattern. Under such an economic backdrop, investors should be alert to potential risks. As a leading media in the forex industry, WikiFX has integrated forex news feed, forums, exposures, broker information query, and other functions. Please download the WikiFX App for detailed financial information: bit.ly/wikifxIN
The availability of various economic models in decision making allows managers and economists to choose the one that suits their objectives. In this respect, Charness and Sutter are more concerned with choosing individual-based decisions because they have a positive impact on teamwork. On the one hand, individual decisions can often contradict the ones accepted in groups. On the other hand, the process of making decisions is much more efficient when group thinking admits expressing individual ideas. In other words, working in group implies constant negotiating and problem solving, which is impossible without self-interested decisions. According to Charness and Sutter, "groups can help with self-control and productivity problems". It has been recognized that each member of the group can have problems with self-motivation and control, which decreases productivity. In order to cope with this problem, engaging in various organizational activities is helpful for the group members to enhance their commitment to a particular goal. There are a great number of methods for increasing self-control and developing fruitful relationship in a working group. For instance, connection and support at an individual level can enhance mutual understanding between members.
Peltola also supports the concept of joint decision-making based on understanding entrepreneurial ideas. Apart from mutual support and assistance, the group members should also be aware of the major operational definitions that could promote negotiation and provide viable solutions to a specific problem. In addition, the scholar insists, "change is an essential element of entrepreneurial processes". In this respect, group members should be more concerned with developing proactive thinking and readiness to change. Such an approach can significantly contribute to greater performance and productivity. Indeed, increasing the importance of individual decision can promote greater understanding among the members of the group. Further in the studies, Peltola places an emphasis on joint decision-making as a means of interaction. The joint decision-making process is premised on four stages, such as "1) proposal, 2) access, 3) agreement and 4) commitment". The first stage begins with establishing a proposal when members have a commonly shared opinion concerning its scope. Then, the proposed ideas should be agreed to demonstrate the working team commitment to goals accomplishment. Apart from approving proposals and decisions, participants may easily disapprove of a specific idea by postponing the decision or asking additional information about the proposal. At the same time, the majority of participants could be interested in forwarding the decision. In addition to a four-stage decision making, it also implies two issues related to authority. The first issue concerns an individual who is entitled to determine the action, whereas the second one introduces the person who should carry out the action. A series of decision-making stages begins with a proposal symmetrically either to support or withdraw the decision. To understand the theoretical framework, the scholar provides an in-depth analysis of the case study in which a company employs decision-making models.
In the era of technological progress, a decision-making process could be carried out by various means, including social networks, online conferences, and instant messaging system. The newly emerged opportunities do not only facilitate the working process, but also provide managers with a competitive advantage over other companies. In this respect, Dennis, Rennecker, and Hansen consider alternative possibilities for developing a decision-making process within an organization. Specifically, the researchers support the evident advantages of working in a team because it owns greater potential and resources for managing specific problems. To enrich the resources of a working team, Dennis et al. introduce the system of instant messaging as collaboration technology that enables information exchange through a range of tools. It has been found that the newly introduced technological tools have greatly promoted the effectiveness of group decision-making as well as have increased the level of satisfaction, participation, and relations among the members of the group. What is more important is that workers are able to affect each phase of decision making through taking an active part in backstage negotiations.
Previous research studies focus on decision-making within a working team because proposals are often considered in culturally diverse environments. At this point, Strutton and Carter discuss the role of various cultural backgrounds and behavioral patterns. Therefore, the decision-making model often depends on psychological, social, and cultural factors that define the nature of possible conflicts as well as the extent to which individuals are ready to solve these conflicts. According to Strutton and Carter, "the right skills, knowledge, and accomplishments surely move managers ahead into their careers". In this respect, higher performance and good reputation could be achieved through exceptional quality of a decision-making process. In order to explain the nature of the process, the scholars have introduced four realities in which decisions are made. First, the process of decision making cannot be performed successfully even though it is carried out by experienced and highly-qualified managers. Second, business leaders often fail to consider cognitive misconceptions during the process. The third argument is based on the second one because it undermines the group rationality of decision making as a result of cognitive misconceptions. Finally, the fourth reality concerns a rational decision-making process, which is not always congruent with the opinions at a managerial level.
Apart from acknowledging four important realities, the scholars focus on behavioral economics theory that has been considered a managerial force because it provides an explanation for individuals making irrational choices. Economists and financial managers frequently employ this model for exploring the limited nature of human rationality. In contrast to their frameworks, Mather & Lighthall also premise on systems that should be used to arrange a decision making process, which is also based on behavioral patterns. In fact, psychological and social approaches to a decision making are efficient because they contribute greatly to organizational performance and productivity.
In conclusion, it should be stressed that the process of decision-making should be carried out in groups. To begin with, it has been discovered that group decisions are more efficient than when made at an individual level. Specifically, self-interest is better pursued in groups, whereas each member can contribute to the final decision. While making choices, the analysis of cultural and social background is not less important because it influences the way managers can process decisions. Understanding the main stages and realities in which negotiations are held plays a key role in enhancing strategic management and accomplishing organizational goals. In addition, effective teamwork is based on the rationality of decision made as well as on the extent to which individuals are ready to cooperate.
